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PIT 5 / NYY 3
PITPittsburgh Pirates39%
NYYNew York Yankees61%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterMitch KellerConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline61%Model 20260720_auto
NYYHome starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
PIT39%ML +155
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
NYY61%ML -186

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.0 pts

Model (60.5%) and market (61.6%) agree on NYY slight favorite. Cole's 3.93 ERA in 55 IP is solid; Keller's 5.14 ERA in 103 IP is exploitable. Yankee Stadium's 0.93 park factor suppresses offense. Model's 9.15 total vs market 9.5 suggests under lean, supported by pitcher park and Cole's strikeout ability (9.0 K/9).

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Mitch KellerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +116 betrivers / U -142 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Gerrit ColeNYY starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 betonlineag / U -110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%over
O 10.53%over
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+155 / -186PIT / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+109)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -111
32 books31 ML21 run line22 total