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LAD 8 / NYY 2
LADLos Angeles Dodgers58%
NYYNew York Yankees42%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterYoshinobu YamamotoConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline58%Model 20260713_auto
NYYHome starterCam SchlittlerConfirmed
LAD58%ML -132
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
NYY42%ML +110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.9 pts

Model has LAD 57.6%, market implies 52.6% — modest comparison. Weathers 4.15 ERA at home in pitcher park vs Sheehan 4.81 ERA suggests tighter game than model's -1.24 margin. Model total 8.78 vs market 7.5 is a 1.28 gap; LAD's .743 OPS and model weighting strikeouts heavily may justify slight over lean but not with conviction.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Emmet SheehanLAD starter / away
Projected K5.2Did not start / void
Best price at 5.55.5O +101 draftkings / U -115 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.588%
O 3.575%
O 4.559%
O 5.542%
O 6.528%
O 7.517%
O 8.59%
O 9.55%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Ryan WeathersNYY starter / home
Projected K5.0Did not start / void
Best price at 5.55.5O -102 fanduel / U -108 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.587%
O 3.573%
O 4.556%
O 5.539%
O 6.525%
O 7.515%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-132 / +110LAD / NYY moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -102
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total