MLB / mlb / live
MIN 11 / NYY 4MINMinnesota Twins47%
NYYNew York Yankees53%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterZebby MatthewsConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
NYYHome starterBrendan BeckConfirmed
MIN47%ML +128
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
NYY53%ML -152
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.0
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -122 fanduel / U +115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Brendan BeckNYY starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.4Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.565%over
O 3.543%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+128 / -152MIN / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total