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DET 7 / NYY 3
DETDetroit Tigers56%
NYYNew York Yankees44%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterCasey MizeConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
NYYHome starterRyan WeathersConfirmed
DET56%ML +117
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
NYY44%ML -139

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.5 pts

Model favors DET 55.7% vs market's 45% (DET +118). DET's 30-54 record and .582 OPS make this a classic offense_defense_mismatch scenario the model misses. Mize (2.95 ERA) vs Weathers (3.95 ERA) at pitcher-friendly Yankee Stadium (0.933 PF) argues under on the 8.0 total. Model's 6.98 total is 1+ run below market, likely right given park and pitchers.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Casey MizeDET starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 bovada / U -121 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Ryan WeathersNYY starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +110 fanduel / U -117 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%under
O 4.569%under
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+117 / -139DET / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total