MLB / mlb / live
DET 6 / NYY 2DETDetroit Tigers47%
NYYNew York Yankees53%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterTroy MeltonConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
NYYHome starterWill WarrenConfirmed
DET47%ML +110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
NYY53%ML -130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Troy MeltonDET starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U +109 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Will WarrenNYY starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -119 betonlineag / U +101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -130DET / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total