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CHW 5 / NYY 1
CHWChicago White Sox43%
NYYNew York Yankees57%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterBryan HudsonConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline57%Model 20260616_auto
NYYHome starterRyan WeathersConfirmed
CHW43%ML +140
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
NYY57%ML -168

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.2 pts

Model has NYY 56.9%, market has 59.2%. CHW has better OPS (.729 vs .692) despite worse record and RPG. Yankee Stadium park factor 0.93 argues under; model's 8.74 vs market 9.5 is reasonable. Model likely underweighting CHW offense quality. Lean CHW, slight comparison.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.6
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryan HudsonCHW starter / away
Projected K1.5Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.543%over
O 2.519%under
O 3.57%under
O 4.52%under
O 5.50%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Ryan WeathersNYY starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 fanduel / U +120 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.573%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.543%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.519%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+140 / -168CHW / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -111 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total