MLB / mlb / live
BOS 1 / NYY 6BOSBoston Red Sox40%
NYYNew York Yankees60%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterRanger Suarez
Model pickNYY moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterCam Schlittler
BOS40%ML +125
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
NYY60%ML -150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.8 pts
NYY 37-26 vs BOS 26-36; model 60.2% lines up reasonably with Pinnacle's 58.2% implied. Both starters lack resolved ERA/WHIP stats despite 10 GS each—unclear if data lag or missing inputs. Model's 8.84 total sits 0.84 runs above market 8.0; Yankee Stadium park factor 0.93 argues under but BOS .736 OPS suggests offense. Lean NYY on record, over on total given model-market gap and offensive profiles.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+125 / -150BOS / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total