MLB / mlb / live
BOS 1 / NYY 6BOSBoston Red Sox40%
NYYNew York Yankees60%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterRanger Suarez
Model pickNYY moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterCam Schlittler
BOS40%ML +125
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
NYY60%ML -150
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts
NYY 37-26 vs BOS 26-36; model 60.2% lines up reasonably with Pinnacle's 58.2% implied. Both starters lack resolved ERA/WHIP stats despite 10 GS each—unclear if data lag or missing inputs. Model's 8.84 total sits 0.84 runs above market 8.0; Yankee Stadium park factor 0.93 argues under but BOS .736 OPS suggests offense. Lean NYY on record, over on total given model-market gap and offensive profiles.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -150BOS / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total