MLB / mlb / live
BOS 5 / NYY 3BOSBoston Red Sox40%
NYYNew York Yankees60%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterSonny Gray
Model pickNYY moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterRyan Weathers
BOS40%ML +121
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
NYY60%ML -144
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.6 pts
Model at 60.2% vs market 57.4% on NYY is modest comparison. BOS offense better (.736 OPS vs .692) but 25-36 record suggests context issues. Weathers lacks resolved ERA/IP data despite 10 starts—concerning gap. Model total 8.53 vs market 8.0 is close but Weathers unknowns make total unreadable. Lean NYY on home field and record.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+121 / -144BOS / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -113 / U -109
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total