MLB / mlb / live
CLE 5 / NYY 4CLECleveland Guardians49%
NYYNew York Yankees51%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterGavin Williams
Model pickNYY moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterGerrit Cole
CLE49%ML +117
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
NYY51%ML -136
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.0 pts
Model sees coin flip (50.6% NYY), market has NYY at 59%. Cole's missing stats (all null) suggest pitcher_data_fallback wasn't triggered but data is incomplete. CLE offense is anemic (3.0 RPG, .600 OPS). Model's 9.07 total vs market 7.0 is a 2-run structural miss; Yankee Stadium PF 0.93 and weak CLE bats argue under. Lean CLE only because market disagrees strongly with model's toss-up view.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+117 / -136CLE / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total