MLB / mlb / live
CLE 9 / NYY 4CLECleveland Guardians42%
NYYNew York Yankees58%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterJoey Cantillo
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterCam Schlittler
CLE42%ML +172
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
NYY58%ML -208
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.0 pts
Model has NYY 58%, market implies 68% — a 10-point gap flags structural miss. CLE offense is league-worst at 2.4 RPG but model sees comparison via Cantillo's 12.27 K/9. Model total of 9.16 vs market 7.5 is massive (+1.66 runs); Yankee Stadium PF 0.93 and CLE's anemic offense argue for market under. Fade model total, slight lean to CLE value at +207.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+172 / -208CLE / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total