MLB / mlb / live
CLE 9 / NYY 4CLECleveland Guardians42%
NYYNew York Yankees58%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterJoey Cantillo
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterCam Schlittler
CLE42%ML +172
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability65%Selected moneyline pick
NYY58%ML -208
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.7 pts
Model has NYY 58%, market implies 68% — a 10-point gap flags structural miss. CLE offense is league-worst at 2.4 RPG but model sees comparison via Cantillo's 12.27 K/9. Model total of 9.16 vs market 7.5 is massive (+1.66 runs); Yankee Stadium PF 0.93 and CLE's anemic offense argue for market under. Fade model total, slight lean to CLE value at +207.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+172 / -208CLE / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total