MLB / mlb / live
TBR 0 / NYY 2TBRTampa Bay Rays42%
NYYNew York Yankees58%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterDrew Rasmussen
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterRyan Weathers
TBR42%ML +118
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
NYY58%ML -139
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.2 pts
Model favors NYY 58% but market is only 55%, and TBR is superior on record (34-15 vs 30-22) and offense (6.5 RPG, .802 OPS vs 3.5 RPG, .692 OPS). Rasmussen's 1.8 ERA in limited IP suggests sharp pitching. Model's +0.76 margin to NYY despite TBR's clear offensive comparison flags offense_defense_mismatch. Model total 8.95 vs market 7.0 is a 1.95-run gap; lean over given TBR's elite offense.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+118 / -139TBR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -106 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total