MLB / mlb / live
TBR 0 / NYY 2TBRTampa Bay Rays42%
NYYNew York Yankees58%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterDrew Rasmussen
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterRyan Weathers
TBR42%ML +118
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
NYY58%ML -139
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.9 pts
Model favors NYY 58% but market is only 55%, and TBR is superior on record (34-15 vs 30-22) and offense (6.5 RPG, .802 OPS vs 3.5 RPG, .692 OPS). Rasmussen's 1.8 ERA in limited IP suggests sharp pitching. Model's +0.76 margin to NYY despite TBR's clear offensive comparison flags offense_defense_mismatch. Model total 8.95 vs market 7.0 is a 1.95-run gap; lean over given TBR's elite offense.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+118 / -139TBR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -106 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total