MLB / mlb / live
TBR 4 / NYY 2TBRTampa Bay Rays40%
NYYNew York Yankees60%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterNick Martinez
Model pickNYY moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterGerrit Cole
TBR40%ML +124
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
NYY60%ML -147
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.2 pts
Model picks NYY at 60.2% vs market's 58%, but TBR has superior record (33-15) and offense (6.5 RPG, .802 OPS vs 3.5 RPG, .692 OPS). Offense_defense_mismatch flag fires correctly—model backing worse team on both dimensions. Lean TBR as live dog; total 8.92 vs market 8.0 suggests over in pitcher-friendly park.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+124 / -147TBR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -107 / U -111
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total