MLB / mlb / live
TOR 2 / NYY 1TORToronto Blue Jays37%
NYYNew York Yankees63%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterTrey Yesavage
Model pickNYY moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterCam Schlittler
TOR37%ML +145
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
NYY63%ML -175
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.6 pts
Model and market align on NYY (62.6% vs 61.4% implied). TOR's 4.9 RPG offense is substantially better than NYY's 4.0, yet model favors home by 1+ runs—likely overweighting venue suppression (PF 0.933). Model total 8.72 sits 0.7 runs over market 8.0; with no pitcher stats visible, lean over on TOR's potent lineup.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+145 / -175TOR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -107 / U -112
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total