MLB / mlb / live
TOR 2 / NYY 1TORToronto Blue Jays37%
NYYNew York Yankees63%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterTrey Yesavage
Model pickNYY moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterCam Schlittler
TOR37%ML +145
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
NYY63%ML -175
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.1 pts
Model and market align on NYY (62.6% vs 61.4% implied). TOR's 4.9 RPG offense is substantially better than NYY's 4.0, yet model favors home by 1+ runs—likely overweighting venue suppression (PF 0.933). Model total 8.72 sits 0.7 runs over market 8.0; with no pitcher stats visible, lean over on TOR's potent lineup.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+145 / -175TOR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -107 / U -112
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total