MLB / mlb / live
TOR 4 / NYY 5TORToronto Blue Jays42%
NYYNew York Yankees58%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterDylan Cease
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterWill Warren
TOR42%ML +115
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
NYY58%ML -135
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.8 pts
Model has NYY 58% but Cease's 20.25 K/9 over 5.1 IP and 1.69 ERA is elite form vs Warren's 4.1 IP sample (2.08 ERA but 1.62 WHIP). Market at TOR +121 is a notable comparison point. Yankee Stadium PF 0.933 plus ace matchup supports under 8.5.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+115 / -135TOR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total