MLB / mlb / live
TEX 6 / NYY 1TEXTexas Rangers53%
NYYNew York Yankees47%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterNathan Eovaldi
Model pickTEX moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterWill Warren
TEX53%ML +170
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
NYY47%ML -202
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time18.1 pts
Model picks TEX 53.1% but market has NYY at 64.9% — an 11.8pp disagreement favoring the home side. NYY's 25-11 record and 6.5 RPG offense vs TEX's 2.4 RPG is stark. Warren's 2.08 ERA in 4.1 IP is tiny sample; Eovaldi's 9.64 ERA in 4.2 IP equally noisy. Defer to market on side. Total 8.97 vs market 8.5 is close; lean over given NYY's offense and pitcher_data_fallback risk on both starters' low IP.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+170 / -202TEX / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total