MLB / mlb / live
BAL 4 / NYY 9BALBaltimore Orioles40%
NYYNew York Yankees60%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterKyle Bradish
Model pickNYY moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
NYYHome starterRyan Weathers
BAL40%ML +140
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
NYY60%ML -166
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.2 pts
Model and market converge tightly on NYY (~60% implied). Weathers lacks basic stats (IP/ERA null despite 10 starts), creating structural uncertainty. Bradish's 3.86 ERA in 4.7 IP flags small sample. Park factor 0.93 and model's 8.95 vs market 8.5 suggest under lean.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+140 / -166BAL / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total