MLB / mlb / live
PHI 3 / NYM 0PHIPhiladelphia Phillies47%
NYMNew York Mets53%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterAaron NolaConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline53%Model 20260914_auto
NYMHome starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
PHI47%ML +110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
NYM53%ML -130
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.7
Market total8.3
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Aaron NolaPHI starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 bovada / U -132 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%under
O 5.550%under
O 6.535%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 bovada / U -138 mybookieag7 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -130PHI / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.3O -112 / U -114
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total