sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

BAL 7 / NYM 5
BALBaltimore Orioles42%
NYMNew York Mets58%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterShane BazConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline58%Model 20260914_auto
NYMHome starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
BAL42%ML +110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
NYM58%ML -132

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.7 pts

Model (57.8%) and market (55.0%) essentially agree on the Mets, so this is a defensible side without a real comparison. Baltimore's 3.4 RPG and .662 OPS is the weakest input here, and neither starter misses many bats (Manaea 4.79 ERA, 1.34 WHIP; Baz 4.05, 1.33). Combined scoring rates and a slightly hitter-friendly Citi Field (1.026) argue over 8.0, though BAL's punchless offense caps the upside.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane BazBAL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 fanatics / U +109 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%under
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Sean ManaeaNYM starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +118 fanduel / U -148 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+110 / -132BAL / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total