MLB / mlb / live
BAL 2 / NYM 1BALBaltimore Orioles47%
NYMNew York Mets53%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterBrandon YoungConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline53%Model 20260914_auto
NYMHome starterJonah TongConfirmed
BAL47%ML +121
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
NYM53%ML -145
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.4 pts
Model 53.3% and market 52.8% align on NYM, so no comparison. Tong has only 15.0 IP with a 4.80 ERA and 1.33 WHIP; Young brings 140.2 IP at 3.71. Baltimore's 3.7 RPG and .662 OPS caps upside, so the model's 9.19 total looks high versus the 8.0 line.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.3
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Brandon YoungBAL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -160 fanatics / U +149 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Jonah TongNYM starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -137 draftkings / U +110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+121 / -145BAL / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.3O -112 / U -114
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total