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SFG 2 / NYM 4
SFGSan Francisco Giants40%
NYMNew York Mets60%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterCesar PerdomoConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline60%Model 20260831_auto
NYMHome starterChristian ScottConfirmed
SFG40%ML +140
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
NYM60%ML -168

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts

Model 60.4% vs market 58.3% on NYM — essentially convergent, so no comparison to press. Perdomo has just 4.0 IP on record, so his 2.25 ERA carries no signal and SFG will need bulk relief innings. SFG's listed 6.1 RPG against a .388 OPS is internally inconsistent, which undermines the away offense inputs. Total 8.6 vs 8.0 line is not actionable on that data.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cesar PerdomoSFG starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +112 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.542%over
O 4.524%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Christian ScottNYM starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 betmgm / U +143 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%over
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+140 / -168SFG / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total