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HOU 6 / NYM 3
HOUHouston Astros39%
NYMNew York Mets61%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterEthan PeckoConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline61%Model 20260824_auto
NYMHome starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
HOU39%ML +107
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
NYM61%ML -124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.2 pts

Thornton (2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 56.1 IP) is a meaningful comparison over Pecko, whose 7.88 ERA in 8 IP across 2 starts is too small a sample to trust either way. Market at -119 vs model 61.5% is an 8+ point gap; I side with NYM but at market-ish size given NYM's 3.4 RPG and worse record. Both offenses score under 4.2 per game, so 9.0 looks high.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ethan PeckoHOU starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +106 draftkings / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +113 betonlineag / U -108 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+107 / -124HOU / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -114
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total