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MIL 8 / NYM 2
MILMilwaukee Brewers51%
NYMNew York Mets49%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
NYMHome starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
MIL51%ML -200
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
NYM49%ML +170

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.1 pts

Model has this near a coin flip (50.6%) while the market implies ~67% for Milwaukee, and the market looks right: MIL is 82-51 with 6.2 RPG and a .972 OPS against a Mets club at 3.6 RPG. Misiorowski's 1.68 ERA, 13.41 K/9 and 0.76 WHIP over 145 IP badly outclass Manaea's 4.31 ERA/1.31 WHIP. The 9.15 model total versus a 7.0 line is a structural miss on the ace side; lean under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / away
Projected K8.1Actual 6 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O -125 fanatics / U +107 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 8.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.589%over
O 5.580%over
O 6.568%under
O 7.555%under
O 8.542%under
O 9.530%under
O 10.521%under
O 11.513%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Sean ManaeaNYM starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 betonlineag / U +116 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%under
O 4.562%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-200 / +170MIL / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -109 / U -112
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total