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HOU 3 / NYM 1
HOUHouston Astros37%
NYMNew York Mets63%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterHunter BrownConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline63%Model 20260824_auto
NYMHome starterChristian ScottConfirmed
HOU37%ML -110
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
NYM63%ML -107

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.5 pts

Model has NYM at 62.7% against a market implying 46.2% — a 16-point gap on the team with the worse record (60-74 vs 67-67) and worse scoring rate (3.3 vs 3.9 RPG). Hunter Brown's 3.51 ERA against a Mets offense averaging 3.3 runs argues the other way. Slight lean to Houston. Both starters missing bats and combined RPG near 7.2 supports under 8.0.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Hunter BrownHOU starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betrivers / U -149 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.525%over
O 7.515%over
O 8.58%over
O 9.54%over
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Christian ScottNYM starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -142 fanduel / U +119 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%under
O 3.584%under
O 4.571%under
O 5.555%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -107HOU / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-176)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total