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MIL 8 / NYM 1
MILMilwaukee Brewers46%
NYMNew York Mets54%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterDustin MayConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
NYMHome starterRobert StockConfirmed
MIL46%ML -156
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
NYM54%ML +133

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.0 pts

Model has NYM at 53.8% vs market's 40.8% implied — a 13-point gap with no supporting profile. Milwaukee is 81-51 with a .972 OPS and 5.5 RPG against a Mets club at 3.9 RPG and .736 OPS. Stock has 16.7 IP across 7 starts with a 5.40 ERA and 1.68 WHIP, effectively a bullpen game; May's 124 IP is the more stable side. Lean over the 8.5.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Dustin MayMIL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betrivers / U +106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Robert StockNYM starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +140 bovada / U -180 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-156 / +133MIL / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -117
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total