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MIL 2 / NYM 3
MILMilwaukee Brewers46%
NYMNew York Mets54%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterKyle HarrisonConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
NYMHome starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
MIL46%ML -162
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
NYM54%ML +140

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time14.3 pts

Model has NYM at 54.4% against a market implying 40.2% while picking the worse team on both record (59-72 vs 81-50) and offense (3.9 RPG/.736 OPS vs 5.8/.972). Harrison's 11.17 K/9 and 2.84 ERA comparison Thornton's 3.04. The 9.24 model total versus a 7.5 line looks like a structural miss with both starters under 3.50; lean under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatchace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -108 betonlineag / U +120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 fanduel / U +114 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-162 / +140MIL / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total