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SDP 2 / NYM 4
SDPSan Diego Padres48%
NYMNew York Mets52%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterMichael KingConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline52%Model 20260817_auto
NYMHome starterRobert StockConfirmed
SDP48%ML -141
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
NYM52%ML +120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.5 pts

Model takes NYM despite worse record (57-70 vs 68-59), lower RPG (3.9 vs 4.7) and a far weaker starter: Stock's 6.57 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over 12.3 IP vs King's 3.41 ERA, 1.19 WHIP across 142.3 IP. Market's 44.1% on the Mets looks closer to right. Total 8.5 is fair with a shaky NYM starter but a weak NYM offense, so no side.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 fanduel / U +128 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Robert StockNYM starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -139 betrivers / U +129 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-141 / +120SDP / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total