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WSN 4 / NYM 5
WSNWashington Nationals43%
NYMNew York Mets57%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterBrad LordConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline57%Model 20260810_auto
NYMHome starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
WSN43%ML +119
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
NYM57%ML -140

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.6 pts

Model (56.8%) and market (56.2% implied) agree on the Mets, so there's no comparison to exploit — a lean at best. Manaea's 4.13 ERA and 1.32 WHIP are shakier than Lord's 3.79/1.18, but Lord has only 61.7 IP across 10 starts, meaning short outings and bullpen exposure. With NYM at 5.7 RPG, WSN at .820 OPS, and Citi playing neutral (PF 1.026), 8.0 looks low even if the model's 9.34 is too aggressive.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brad LordWSN starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +132 draftkings / U -150 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%under
O 2.571%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Sean ManaeaNYM starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -148 fanduel / U +122 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+119 / -140WSN / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total