MLB / mlb / live
WSN 3 / NYM 4WSNWashington Nationals47%
NYMNew York Mets53%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterJake IrvinConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
NYMHome starterChristian ScottConfirmed
WSN47%ML +140
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
NYM53%ML -165
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jake IrvinWSN starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +131 draftkings / U -155 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Christian ScottNYM starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -122 draftkings / U +117 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -165WSN / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -103
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total