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scheduled
MIAMiami Marlins46%
NYMNew York Mets54%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
NYMHome starterRobert StockConfirmed
MIA46%ML -120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
NYM54%ML +100

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap6.3 pts

Home pitcher Robert Stock has fallback data (3 starts, no stats resolved), creating structural uncertainty. Market favors MIA at -115 (52.4% implied), model leans NYM at 54.1%. Alcantara's 3.82 ERA over 150.7 IP is solid, but model's total at 8.78 vs market 8.5 is tight. Defer to market on MIA side given home pitcher opacity.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K5.2
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.588%
O 3.575%
O 4.558%
O 5.541%
O 6.527%
O 7.516%
O 8.59%
O 9.55%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Robert StockNYM starter / home
Projected K3.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%
O 2.556%
O 3.534%
O 4.518%
O 5.59%
O 6.54%
O 7.51%
O 8.50%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-120 / +100MIA / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total