MLB / mlb / live
MIA 5 / NYM 2MIAMiami Marlins45%
NYMNew York Mets55%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterJanson JunkConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
NYMHome starterKodai SengaConfirmed
MIA45%ML +100
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
NYM55%ML -118
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Janson JunkMIA starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -162 betrivers / U +133 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Kodai SengaNYM starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -121 draftkings / U +112 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -118MIA / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total