MLB / mlb / live
MIA 6 / NYM 2MIAMiami Marlins45%
NYMNew York Mets55%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
NYMHome starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
MIA45%ML +112
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
NYM55%ML -132
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.6
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 betmgm / U -121 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 fanatics / U -160 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+112 / -132MIA / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -102 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total