MLB / mlb / live
scheduledMIAMiami Marlins45%
NYMNew York Mets55%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
NYMHome starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
MIA45%ML +112
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
NYM55%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.6
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / away
Projected K3.6
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 betmgm / U -117 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%
O 2.568%
O 3.547%
O 4.529%
O 5.516%
O 6.58%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +134 fanduel / U -153 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.581%
O 3.564%
O 4.546%
O 5.530%
O 6.517%
O 7.59%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+112 / -132MIA / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -117
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total