MLB / mlb / live
MIA 2 / NYM 4MIAMiami Marlins45%
NYMNew York Mets55%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterEury PérezConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
NYMHome starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
MIA45%ML +110
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
NYM55%ML -132
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Eury PérezMIA starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -143 betrivers / U +130 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -104 fanduel / U -103 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -132MIA / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total