MLB / mlb / live
ATL 2 / NYM 3ATLAtlanta Braves51%
NYMNew York Mets49%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterAJ Smith-ShawverConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
NYMHome starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
ATL51%ML -113
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
NYM49%ML -105
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
AJ Smith-ShawverATL starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -112 betrivers / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.526%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.565%over
O 3.544%over
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 fanduel / U +127 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-113 / -105ATL / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-171)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total