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ATL 3 / NYM 14
ATLAtlanta Braves47%
NYMNew York Mets53%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterMartín PérezConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline53%Model 20260727_auto
NYMHome starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
ATL47%ML -107
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
NYM53%ML -111

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.3 pts

Model likes NYM at 53% but market has ATL favored at 52%. Thornton's 1.93 ERA over 23 IP is strong but Pérez is solid at 3.38 over 85 IP. ATL's 6.0 RPG offense vs NYM's 3.6 RPG is decisive; 62-43 vs 44-62 record gap huge. Offense_defense_mismatch flag fires because model picks worse team. Lean ATL, slight over on 8.5 total.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 betmgm / U +110 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +106 betrivers / U -126 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-107 / -111ATL / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total