MLB / mlb / live
scheduledATLAtlanta Braves48%
NYMNew York Mets52%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterMartín PérezProbable
Model pickNYM moneyline52%Model 20260720_auto
NYMHome starterZac ThorntonProbable
ATL48%ML -116
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
NYM52%ML -104
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K4.1
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.577%
O 3.558%
O 4.540%
O 5.524%
O 6.513%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K4.4
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.580%
O 3.563%
O 4.544%
O 5.528%
O 6.516%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-116 / -104ATL / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-178)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -116
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total