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LAD 4 / NYM 3
LADLos Angeles Dodgers55%
NYMNew York Mets45%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterYoshinobu YamamotoConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
NYMHome starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
LAD55%ML -159
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
NYM45%ML +133

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts

Model has LAD at 54.9%, market implies 61% — meaningful gap. Yamamoto (2.78 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) vs McLean (3.34 ERA) favors LAD. Ace matchup flag set but model total of 8.91 runs is 1.4 runs over market 7.5, suggesting model sees offensive comparison. NYM's 2.7 RPG is weak; LAD's lineup should control. Lean over on total given model-market spread.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +109 betonlineag / U -130 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.552%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Nolan McLeanNYM starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +116 fanduel / U -142 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-159 / +133LAD / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -107 / U -124
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total