MLB / mlb / live
LAD 4 / NYM 2LADLos Angeles Dodgers55%
NYMNew York Mets45%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterRoki SasakiConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
NYMHome starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
LAD55%ML -127
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
NYM45%ML +106
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Roki SasakiLAD starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -150 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%over
O 7.514%over
O 8.58%over
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +140 betmgm / U -154 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-127 / +106LAD / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-149)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -112
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total