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BOS 3 / NYM 2
BOSBoston Red Sox50%
NYMNew York Mets50%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterPayton TolleConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
NYMHome starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
BOS50%ML -112
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
NYM50%ML -106

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.4 pts

Market favors BOS -125 (54% implied), model sees coinflip. Thornton's 10.3 IP sample is too small to trust his 4.35 ERA; Tolle has 80 IP of 3.14 ERA work. Model's 9.08 total vs market 8.0 is a gap worth noting — likely Citi Field (PF 1.026) and BOS bullpen velocity driving the over lean. Slight comparison to away side given starter quality disparity.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Payton TolleBOS starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -114 betonlineag / U +112 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betonlineag / U -135 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-112 / -106BOS / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total