MLB / mlb / live
BOS 4 / NYM 0BOSBoston Red Sox47%
NYMNew York Mets53%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterEduardo RiveraConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
NYMHome starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
BOS47%ML +120
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
NYM53%ML -146
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Eduardo RiveraBOS starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 3 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.541%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -116 draftkings / U +100 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -146BOS / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total