MLB / mlb / live
KCR 2 / NYM 6KCRKansas City Royals44%
NYMNew York Mets56%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterSteven CruzConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline56%Model 20260706_auto
NYMHome starterChristian ScottConfirmed
KCR44%ML +162
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
NYM56%ML -196
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Steven CruzKCR starter / away
Projected K2.5Actual 2 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.570%over
O 2.544%under
O 3.524%under
O 4.511%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Christian ScottNYM starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 betmgm / U +106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+162 / -196KCR / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total