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PHI 2 / NYM 6
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies50%
NYMNew York Mets50%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterTim MayzaConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline50%Model 20260622_auto
NYMHome starterChristian ScottConfirmed
PHI50%ML +110
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
NYM50%ML -130

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.9 pts

Rangel has only 8.0 IP this season; treating him as a 2.25 ERA pitcher is a small-sample trap. Scott's 3.10 ERA over 40.7 IP is more credible but still only 10 starts. Model and market converge near 53-54% PHI, ace_matchup flag fires but Rangel's sample makes this label questionable. Pass on side and total.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tim MayzaPHI starter / away
Projected K2.5Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.570%under
O 2.545%under
O 3.524%under
O 4.511%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Christian ScottNYM starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 fanduel / U -102 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+110 / -130PHI / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total