MLB / mlb / live
PHI 2 / NYM 1PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%
NYMNew York Mets47%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterZack WheelerConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
NYMHome starterZach ThorntonConfirmed
PHI53%ML -159
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
NYM47%ML +133
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -110 betmgm / U -106 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Zach ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -148 fanduel / U +120 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-159 / +133PHI / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total