MLB / mlb / live
CHC 10 / NYM 5CHCChicago Cubs58%
NYMNew York Mets42%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
NYMHome starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
CHC58%ML -113
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
NYM42%ML -106
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U -107 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 fanduel / U -143 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-113 / -106CHC / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -114
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total