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CHC 10 / NYM 3
CHCChicago Cubs58%
NYMNew York Mets42%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterJavier AssadConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
NYMHome starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
CHC58%ML +100
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
NYM42%ML -118

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.2 pts

CHC pick aligns with model (58.3%) and market (54%). Away pitcher is fallback (TBD/team avg), making total unreliable despite model at 9.16 vs market 8.5. McLean's 3.67 ERA over 83 IP is solid but model leans CHC on offense metrics. Defer on total given pitcher uncertainty.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / away
Projected K4.8Did not start / void
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 betmgm / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.569%
O 4.552%
O 5.535%
O 6.521%
O 7.512%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Kodai SengaNYM starter / home
Projected K4.4Did not start / void
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 fanduel / U +109 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.581%
O 3.563%
O 4.545%
O 5.529%
O 6.516%
O 7.59%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+100 / -118CHC / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+122)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -103 / U -121
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total