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ATL 1 / NYM 8
ATLAtlanta Braves55%
NYMNew York Mets45%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterBryce ElderConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
ATL55%ML +105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
NYM45%ML -126

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap8.6 pts

Model slightly favors ATL at 55.2%, market has them at 48.5% — a 6.7pp gap favoring the model's away side. ATL's superior record (46-24 vs 31-39) and offense (.789 OPS vs .736) support the pick. Elder's 2.66 ERA in 84.7 IP is legitimate, Peralta's 4.04 ERA in 78 IP is middling. Model total of 9.31 vs market 8.5 is close but leans over; Citi Field slight hitter park (PF 1.026) supports that nudge.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryce ElderATL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 draftkings / U -130 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +119 draftkings / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%under
O 3.577%under
O 4.561%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+105 / -126ATL / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total