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ATL 5 / NYM 7
ATLAtlanta Braves55%
NYMNew York Mets45%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterSpencer Strider
Model pickATL moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterNolan McLean
ATL55%ML +108
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
NYM45%ML -128

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.1 pts

Model has ATL at 55.2% but market has NYM favored at 53.9% — flags as large disagreement. Both teams score 4.3 RPG; ATL's comparison is .789 vs .736 OPS and much better record (45-23). McLean (3.98 ERA, 10.2 K/9 in 72 IP) is the more proven arm vs Strider (4.00 ERA, 10.75 K/9 but only 36 IP). Citi Field slight hitter park. Model total 9.26 vs market 8.0 suggests over lean, supported by strong offenses.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Spencer StriderATL starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 betrivers / U +110 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%under
O 4.560%under
O 5.544%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Nolan McLeanNYM starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 betmgm / U +104 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+108 / -128ATL / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -113 / U -106
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total