MLB / mlb / live
STL 4 / NYM 5STLSt. Louis Cardinals59%
NYMNew York Mets41%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterHunter Dobbins
Model pickSTL moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterChristian Scott
STL59%ML +125
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
NYM41%ML -150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap16.1 pts
Model favors STL 58.6% vs market's 44.6% (from +120). Market disagreement is large but model may be overweighting STL's .812 OPS comparison. Both pitchers solid (Scott 2.50 ERA, Dobbins 2.77) but Dobbins has only 13.0 IP across 10 starts—likely an opener/bulk guy, not a true starter. Ace matchup flag questionable given small samples. Lean STL on offense but no strong comparison.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+125 / -150STL / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total