MLB / mlb / live
STL 7 / NYM 0STLSt. Louis Cardinals46%
NYMNew York Mets54%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterDustin May
Model pickNYM moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterFreddy Peralta
STL46%ML +110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
NYM54%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.9 pts
Model predicts 9.09 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.6-run gap triggering total_far_from_market. Both starters have terrible ERAs (Peralta 7.2, May 13.5) but extremely small samples (5.0 IP, 4.0 IP respectively). Market at 7.5 is pricing real talent; model is overweighting noise. Lean STL at +113 value, strong under on total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -132STL / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -111 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total