MLB / mlb / live
STL 7 / NYM 0STLSt. Louis Cardinals46%
NYMNew York Mets54%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterDustin May
Model pickNYM moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterFreddy Peralta
STL46%ML +110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
NYM54%ML -132
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.4 pts
Model predicts 9.09 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.6-run gap triggering total_far_from_market. Both starters have terrible ERAs (Peralta 7.2, May 13.5) but extremely small samples (5.0 IP, 4.0 IP respectively). Market at 7.5 is pricing real talent; model is overweighting noise. Lean STL at +113 value, strong under on total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -132STL / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -111 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total