MLB / mlb / live
MIA 1 / NYM 6MIAMiami Marlins55%
NYMNew York Mets45%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterTyler Phillips
Model pickMIA moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterChristian Scott
MIA55%ML +105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
NYM45%ML -125
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#14
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.5 pts
Christian Scott's missing stats (null ERA/IP/K9/WHIP despite 10 GS) render both side and total unreliable. Phillips' 2.0 IP across 9 starts signals incomplete data. Model total of 8.93 vs market 7.0 is a 1.93-run gap—massive structural miss likely from bad pitcher inputs. Cannot pick without real starter stats.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+105 / -125MIA / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total