MLB / mlb / live
MIA 1 / NYM 6MIAMiami Marlins55%
NYMNew York Mets45%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterTyler Phillips
Model pickMIA moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterChristian Scott
MIA55%ML +105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
NYM45%ML -125
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#14
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap8.5 pts
Christian Scott's missing stats (null ERA/IP/K9/WHIP despite 10 GS) render both side and total unreliable. Phillips' 2.0 IP across 9 starts signals incomplete data. Model total of 8.93 vs market 7.0 is a 1.93-run gap—massive structural miss likely from bad pitcher inputs. Cannot pick without real starter stats.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+105 / -125MIA / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total