MLB / mlb / live
MIA 7 / NYM 9MIAMiami Marlins56%
NYMNew York Mets44%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterMax Meyer
Model pickMIA moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterFreddy Peralta
MIA56%ML -104
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
NYM44%ML -114
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.5 pts
Model predicts 9.08 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.58-run gap triggers the total_far_from_market flag. Both pitchers show early-season struggles (Peralta 7.2 ERA, Meyer 5.4 ERA in limited IP). Market has MIA slight dog at +104; model leans MIA 55.7%. Citi Field is neutral. The model's total seems more credible than its tight margin given pitcher form.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-104 / -114MIA / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -113 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total