MLB / mlb / live
CIN 7 / NYM 2CINCincinnati Reds55%
NYMNew York Mets45%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase Burns
Model pickCIN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterDavid Peterson
CIN55%ML -122
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
NYM45%ML +104
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.4 pts
Both starters lack meaningful stats: NYM is TBD fallback, CIN's Burns has null ERA/IP/K9. Model predicts 8.86 total vs market 7.0 (1.86 run gap) but without pitcher context this is unactionable. Offense_defense_mismatch flags structural doubt on NYM pick despite model's 53.6% confidence.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-122 / +104CIN / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-166)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total